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Difficult to predict floods, hence preparedness is the best defence

24 Feb 2012
AIT

Panellists discussed the lessons learnt from the Great Thailand Flood
of 2011, and deliberated on future scenarios at the discussion
organized by the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) to mark its return
to the post-flood Pathumthani campus. Ranging between options of flood
retention areas and flood bypass channels suggested by Dr. Seree
Supratid of Rangsit University; changes in flood plains management and
alternatives for diversion channel suggested by Dr. Sutat Weesakul of
AIT; and better management suggested by Dr. Masahiko Nagai; experts
called for immediate action and preparedness to avoid potential
disasters.

The event at AIT was organized to mark the resumption of operations at
AIT, which was flooded by more than two meters of waters in October
2011. AIT President Prof. Said Irandoust remarked that the venue of the
event titled “AIT Returns Home: Towards a Sustainable Future” was the
AIT library building, which could be called “Ground Zero” for the
Institute. No one could have imagined that this building, which had
suffered colossal damage, could be the venue of the first major event
organized by AIT after it achieved its status of an Intergovernmental
International Organization on 30 January 2012.

Beginning the discussion, Dr. Seree remarked that though climate
forecasts are uncertain, this year the forecast is for lesser rain
compared to last year. He added that there is a risk of storms in the
Pacific basin, and it is not known how many of them will affect
Thailand. “It is difficult to predict”, he added on a cautionary note
adding that during the past decade, weather patterns in Thailand have
fluctuated from drought to floods. In light of difficulty in
prediction, preparedness holds the key.

However, there is a huge amount of accumulated rainfall in the North,
and the capacity of the river to carry the waters is limited. He delved
on the option of creating a flood retention basin of two million rais,
and creating an East flood bypass channel or an East and West flood
bypass channel. His other recommendation was to proceed on an inflow
forecasting of dams, risk communication, decision support system and
land-use planning.

Moderated by famous television anchor, Mr. Warin Sachdev, the one-hour
panel discussion was broadcast live on TAN TV Network.

Dr. Sutat stated that during 2011, the accumulated rainfall was 48 per
cent greater than the mean, which broke the record of 1953. He added
that the dykes, which were not strong collapsed leading to an overflow
through the floodplain, and this could not be controlled. He remarked
that floods in Thailand occur once in 4-5 years and the flood return
period of the 2011 event is approximately 100 years. He suggested both
software and hardware solutions for long term sustainability. We need a
change in flood management system in the floodplains, as well as use of
retention area, creation of dykes and flood diversion techniques, he
added. He also suggested alternatives for diversion channels to manage
the huge volume of water.

Dr. Nagai, while presenting satellite images of the 2011 flood stated
that the flood affected area crossed 45,000 square kilometres, which
was a higher than 33,600 square kilometres in 2010. However, this
presented a worst ever experience for the people in Thailand. He cited
the example of a quote from Japan, which stated “Never build below this
stone.” This is an example of lessons which we can learn from our
experience, he said.

The event at AIT witnessed participation from dignitaries from various
countries. They included H.e.Mr. Sohail Mahmood, Ambassador of
Pakistan; H.E. Mr. Joao Freitas de Camara, Ambassador of Timor Leste;
Mr. Vu Quoc Chinh, Counsellor, Embassy of Vietnam; Mr. Jaideep Nair,
Counsellor, Embassy of India; and Mr. Marco Meten, Third Secretary
(Press and Culture), Embassy of Germany. Other distinguished guests who
attended the event included Ms. Sirichon Dejdecha, Logistics and
Administration Coordinator, Telecom Sans Frontieres; Mr. Arnaud Bilecki
of Sodexo; Mr. Kiyoshi Kirono and Ms. Kornkanok Naprasertful of Ebara
Coporation; Dr. Regine Lefait Robin, representative of Institute de
Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) in Thailand, Ms. Julia de
Perrefont from French Agency for Development; Dr. Subin Pinkayan,
AIT Hall of Fame Inductee and former Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Thailand; and Dr. John D. Nelson, Engineering Analytics, Inc.,
USA. 
 
Welcoming all, the AIT President Prof. Irandoust stated that while AIT
is rebuilding itself, it will follow the principles of Safety, Security
and Sustainability, what he termed as 3S principles. He added that AIT
plans to emerge as a Knowledge Hub in the area of floods.

The photo gallery of the event can be accessed at these links on
Facebook:
 

Gallery I

 


Gallery II